The Next Five Years in China

The Next Five Years in China 2023.03.11 No.211

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中文原文： 未來五年中國會怎樣 – xiaominzhixin

On March twelve, the CPC’s People’s Congress held meeting. Xi Jinping was unanimously elected President and Chairman of the Military Commission, and appointed his close crony Li Qiang as Premier of the State Council. This exaggerating political show has basically reached its goal. In fact, the result was already determined, when Xi Jinping became General Secretary for the third term at the CPC’s Twentieth Congress, and Li Qiang became the second-ranking member of the Politburo Standing Committee. In the current condition, Xi Jinping’s unanimous election as President and Chairman of Military Commission was long expected. Nevertheless, it is still a sad news. After all, Xi Jinping’s mistakes and dereliction of duty caused the death of millions, if not tens of millions of Chinese people. Xi Jinping committed such a heinous crime, but still managed to be unanimously elected as the President and Chairman of the Military Commission at the CPC People’s Congress. Thus it can be seen that how shameless the CPC ruling group is, how shameless Xi Jinping is, and how shameless the officials of the CPC are. The sad thing is that at this rate, this shameless and immoral Xi Jinping may be in power for life, and many lives will be in a dark tunnel, never seeing light or hope again.

From the result of this meeting, we can also clearly see that Xi Jinping no longer has any opponents within the CPC. The entire party has prostrated itself at his feet, and none of them stand up bravely. It is worth mentioning that after causing the deaths of millions, if not tens of millions of people, Xi Jinping’s power has hardly been affected at all. This fact shows that Xi Jinping’s wrong decisions has rarely exposed him to risk, and he will not be held accountable at all. This may have made Xi Jinping even more reckless. Xi Jinping is rotten, and the entire top echelon of the CPC is rotten. This means that it is impossible for any of Xi’s policies to be constrained, much less for his mistakes to be corrected. In fact, CPC politics has long since entered the dullest and most tedious garbage period. Unless unexpected events happen, there is little doubt about the general trend of China in the next five years. The general policies of the past five years will continue, and what happened in the past five years will continue to happen in the future. Politics will be more brutal, the economy will collapse, and China will be completely North Koreanized.

For Xi Jinping, he monopolizes power only for the sake of monopolizing power. He does not have the ability to govern at all. Especially after his incompetent, ignorant and shameless nature has been made known to the world, monopolizing power has turned from his means to his end. His main focus in the future is still to consolidate his own power, to strengthen his authority, to guard against his subordinates, and to ensure that no one dares to challenge his power and position. This is the inevitable logic of a dictator’s rule. At the beginning of his new presidential term, Xi will then consider his next term and make arrangements for it. He will select new lackeys, he will continue political purges, and he will maintain the climate of terror within the party.

Xi Jinping will also continue to strengthen the CPC’s control over society, to penetrate society, to deprive the people of everything, to achieve his centralized rule through the CPC monopolization. There will be less and less room for private individuals as Xi Jinping uses every means at all costs to monitor the people. This means that the cost of the CPC’s rule will keep increasing and the people will be exposed to even more brutal oppression. As the economic situation worsens, the people’s lives will become increasingly difficult, and social conflicts will become more sharp, there will be protests of all kinds. However, any social activity that might threaten the dictatorship will be severely suppressed, and the whole society will be in constant turmoil. It is certain that the CPC will continue to spend more fund on maintaining stability.

Xi will continue to expand state-owned enterprises and suppress private enterprises and entrepreneurs. Xi Jinping will not really be lenient with private enterprises and private entrepreneurs just because China’s economy is starting to decline. Nothing is more important to Xi than the power to rule. Once the private sector grows, it will inevitably pursue political power and will inevitably threaten the CPC’s rule, which is something Xi will definitely not tolerate. Xi Jinping would rather have China’s economy lose its intrinsic momentum of development and plunge into recession, but will not really relax his precautions and crackdowns on the private economy. Xi Jinping’s current gesture of goodwill to private enterprises is nothing but a deception. In the next five years, China’s economy will be even more sluggish, and may even fall into a long-term recession. In fact, the ill effects of the wrong policies of the past two or three years are gradually emerging. Many foreign companies are withdrawing, and China’s private sector is shrinking. Especially in the next five years, China’s population will continue to decrease significantly, and the problem of real estate surplus will become more serious. There will be many real estate companies going bankrupt and closing down, and it is absolutely impossible to rely on real estate to drive the economy as it did in previous years. In the next five years, they are unlikely to find an alternative to real estate to drive China’s economy. Xi and his cronies are incapable of finding a solution to the demographic crisis or to the economic problems facing China. Xi Jinping’s socialism will only lead China to poverty. It is certain that in the next five years, under Xi’s rule, people will have less material goods, less wealth, and less freedom.

 In the next five years, Xi Jinping will also face enormous pressure and challenges from both inside and outside the country. The United States and European countries, for their national security strategies, are reducing their dependence on Chinese products or even fully decoupling from China. Facing this general trend, there is absolutely no way for the Xi Jinping administration to reverse it. It would give a fatal blow to China’s export companies, would hit the Chinese economy hard, and would deteriorate China’s employment situation. China’s demographic situation will also deteriorate dramatically. There will be a huge increase in the number of retirees and a huge increase in the number of sick and dying people, which will aggravate insufficient social security funds. The lack of confidence of young people in the future, their lack of trust in the social security system, and their refusal to buy insurance. The time when pension fund will run out may arrive earlier. It’s a situation that Xi Jinping’s administration cannot reverse.

In addition, local government debts have greatly exceeded the alert line, and even more than the local authorities’ ability to repay. If local governments are not able to repay these debts on time, there is a risk of a financial crisis. And for many local governments, the principal and interest on the debt have already used up half of their revenues, and local governments are struggling to sustain themselves and can only continue to expand their debt, already falling into a vicious cycle. If the debt problem is not fundamentally solved, local finances will face collapse and local governments may not be able to function. It is scary that in the coming years, local governments’ fiscal revenues may gradually decline, and then the debt problem will become even more serious. The local debt problem has been deteriorating over the years of Xi’s rule. It is hard to believe that Xi and his cronies are capable of defusing the debt crisis in these next five years. In them, the Chinese see no hope. There is a strong possibility that Xi’s administration will cope with this problem by issuing more currency. This would lead to a significant devaluation of the Yuan, which would effectively rob the people, and transfer the crisis to the people. This will inevitably lead to a serious social and even political crisis, which will accelerate the demise of the CPC’s rule.

The years of Xi Jinping’s rule are leading China to disaster, with political, economic and social deterioration comprehensively, and the entire society is being completely depleted of its vitality. Only, as a large country with a population of more than a billion people, China may see, in these coming years, a state of being ossified, but not dead. There is also the possibility of major turns and changes in the domestic and international situation as a result of episodic events, leading to major changes in the domestic situation. Among them, a major change is most likely to occur in the Taiwan Strait. Xi Jinping may attack Taiwan in order to establish his place in history. Only then could Xi Jinping surpass Mao Zedong’s historical status. In fact, since Xi Jinping came to power，he has been increasing military spending and is making great efforts to upgrade the equipment level of the CPC army, especially the navy and air force, as well as the rocket army. This is obviously not for the purpose of suppressing the people at home. In these coming years, Xi Jinping’s forceful attack on Taiwan will be a probable event, and the U.S. government has repeatedly stated that they will defend Taiwan. Moreover, in recent years, as the CPC’s military intimidation and pressure on Taiwan has gradually increased, the U.S. military support for Taiwan is also gradually increasing. This means that if Xi Jinping attacks Taiwan, there will inevitably be a military confrontation with the United States.

Should this happen, China’s relationship with the United States and Europe would be fundamentally reversed, and China’s international environment would seriously deteriorate. China would be subject to economic and financial sanctions and even an economic blockade by the U.S. and Western countries. China would become more closed and the people would not be able to maintain even the present miserable life and would have to go struggling in poverty and hunger, like the North Koreans. For the Chinese, this is undoubtedly the most miserable ending. And Xi Jinping seems to be preparing for this day to come. Just a few days ago, Xi publicly stated that the Western countries, led by the United States, have imposed an all-round containment, siege and suppression on us. The development of our country is exposed to unprecedented serious challenges. In the coming period, the risks and challenges we face will only become more and more severe. Xi Jinping knows that the United States will no longer be deceived by the CPC. By publicly blaming the U.S., Xi is undoubtedly creating hatred for the U.S. at home, paving the way for a complete break of U.S.-China relations, preparing public opinion for a possible U.S.-China conflict and war, and preparing for a full-scale Koreanization.

Of course, the next five years may also see a different scenario. Xi Jinping’s throne is actually gallows. Xi Jinping’s brutal and arbitrary political control has inspired growing hatred. As the head of the CPC and as a dictator, he will surely be held responsible for all disasters, making him the chief culprit of all evils. In particular, of all the CPC leaders, none has been like Xi Jinping, who is universally despised and hated. Xi Jinping has effectively lost his prestige and reputation inside and outside the Party. He can now only maintain his rule through terror. Xi Jinping’s opening of his third presidential term has already left countless Chinese in despair. If there is a serious social and political crisis at home and hundreds of millions of people are no longer afraid, then Xi’s rule is in danger of instant collapse, just as Ceausescu did. During Xi Jinpings rule of China for ten years, and not only has his reputation been destroyed, but the resources of the CPC’s rule have also been depleted. While people despise and hate Xi Jinping, they also despise and hate the CPC. The end of Xi Jinping’s rule also means the end of the CPC’s rule.