Xi Jinpings’ Secrete Successor
President Xi Jinping’s Secrete Successor 2023.05.27 No.235
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After three years of zero Covid policy, China’s economy is not improving as expected, but is instead heading into recession. At the same time, China’s international environment is deteriorating. Once again, there are strong doubts about Xi Jinping’s rule. Xi’s quick departure from power has become the expectation of almost the entire society. It is in this context that the Wall Street Journal published an article, “Looking at Xi Jinping’s Successor Dilemma from a Historical Perspective.” This has attracted a lot of attention. The article refers to the Qing dynasty, when the emperor appointed the crown prince secretly, to avoid the princes fighting for the crown-prince position, and to avoid the crown prince competing for power from the emperor. The article suggests that Xi also seems to be happy with this approach. What the author means is that Xi may also be engaged in secretly appointing a successor. The article also says that, Xi, who began his third term as general secretary last year, is free to choose his successor and arrange the timing, but has been slow to reveal his cards, intentionally laying down a maze. Perhaps the Wall Street Journal article misreads Xi completely. Xi is not unwilling to reveal his cards, on the contrary, Xi has already revealed his cards, that is, no successor appointment at all. The so-called successor maze is probably only an imagination.
In fact, it is noticeable that, from the nineteenth to the twentieth Congress of the CPC, no successor has been arranged. This is not a coincidence, but a deliberate move. When Xi’s trusted aide Chen Min-er became secretary of the Chongqing Municipal Party Committee, rumors were rife that he would soon become a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, as well as Xi’s successor. It turned out that, Chen not only failed to become a member of the Politburo Standing Committee at the nineteenth National Congress, but also failed at the twentieth Congress. A very important point was that Chen was seen as Xi’s successor. Ding Xuexiang, who was also born after 1960s, was elected to the Committee. A very important factor was that Ding had no work experience at the local level and was not seen as Xi’s successor. Xi has abundant power resources and administrative capacity. His voice is the only voice, and there is no arrangement for successor in either Central Committee. Is it not enough to see Xi’s cards? Obviously, Xi is afraid of a successor. He is trying his best to prevent the emergence of a successor.
In a hereditary system, blood is the most important capital, and the emperor’s edict has the supreme authority. An ordinary prince, even a child hidden in the palace, can inherit the throne by virtue of the emperor’s edict. It is true that the head of the CPC can arrange for a successor, but the CPC system is not a hereditary system after all. A successor needs certain qualifications and experience, and needs to be well known both inside and outside the party. If a figure, without considerable influence, is suddenly appointed as the successor, he is unlikely to take the position smoothly. More importantly, the CPC leader can appoint a successor only when he has power. Without power, he loses everything. The appointed successor also loses foundation. All this determines that in the CPC system, there is simply no possibility or feasibility of secretly appointing a successor.
At the nineteenth National Congress of the CPC, Xi proposed a two-step arrangement to build a strong socialist modern state. First, from 2020 to 2035, to basically realize socialist modernization. Second, from 2035 to the middle of this century, to build a strong socialist modernized state. This implies that he will be in power until after 2035, otherwise, there would be no need to propose two steps at all. This means that Xi will not consider the issue of a successor for at least a decade. Even if he were to consider it, it would have to be after he has completed his fourth term. So, none of the currently serving Politburo members should be in Xi’s consideration. After all, fifteen years from now, the youngest of these members will be in their seventies. So, even Xi himself does not know who or where his successor is.
Xi’s ten years in power have created serious political, economic and social problems. In particular, in the three-year Covid, Xi’s stupid epidemic prevention policies caused unprecedented disasters, killing tens of millions of people, and hitting the economy even harder. Xi has committed unforgivable crimes.
He has done so much evil. If he planned to stay in power for a long time before he has become a public enemy, it is even more unlikely that he will hand over his power now. He certainly worries about his power and worries that he will be liquidated and even put on trial. As can be imagined, the further Xi goes, the more he will worry about his ends, the more he will try to consolidate his power, the more he will be wary of potential successors. Xi should have realized that, whoever becomes the successor, will first criticize him and his faulty policy, so that the new leader can win public support and establish reputation in history. How can Xi accept such an outcome? From this point of view, Xi will certainly not retire voluntarily. In all likelihood, he will rule for life. He would definitely not want to be denounced and tried while he is still alive.
The CPC is a highly centralized political organization, with power highly monopolized by the general secretary. There is widespread concern that without a successor, there may be violent political turmoil if something were to happen to Xi. This is not only critical for the CPC itself, but also critical for the stability and development for China and for the world. But Xi rejects a successor, as it will weaken his own authority and influence and undermine his power. Since Xi does not have self-confidence at all, the existence of a successor will make him feel threatened. In addition, Xi is extremely insecure. Only absolute power can give him a sense of security. Once a successor is established, he will worry that he may be ambushed. Furthermore, he does not trust anyone, he only believes in power, and the only thing he cares about is power. Most importantly, Xi is extremely selfish; he will only think about his own power. He does not care about what will happen after him, or the survival of the CPC, or the stability of China. And Xi is extremely shameless. He only cares about power, not reputation, let alone public opinions. Generally speaking, an autocratic ruler tends to choose someone he trusts as successor, in order to preserve his legacy and protect his interests after he retires. Given to Xi’s personality, he trusts nobody, and he cannot even find a candidate who satisfies him. Xi worries that a successor who is highly capable may be out of his control, a successor who shows too much loyalty may be a two-faced person. He definitely does not wish that an identical Xi Jinping be reproduced while he is still alive, only to leave him marginalized and even humiliated, just as he humiliated his predecessor Hu Jintao.
The CPC’s successor has always been a focus of attention. Especially after Xi came to power, the issue became more complex and sensitive. Xi amended the constitution in 2018 to remove term limits on the presidency, clearing legal hurdles to his long-term rule. This also brings great risk to the future of the CPC and China. No one can tell what the stupid and arrogant man will do next. He does not care what price China pays as long as he can achieve his ambitions. The danger also lies in the fact that, due to the CPC’s system, Xi has not only easily defeated his main opponents in the party, but has also completely suppressed the elites from all sectors of society. Xi no longer has any obvious rivals or challengers within the CPC, and has absolute power that is nearly unchecked, allowing him to do almost anything he wants. If he does not want to appoint a successor, there is no one, no political force, that can force him to do that. The entire ruling group can only passively wait and find the CPC going to collapse.
Up till today, probably no one still have any illusions about Xi anymore. If Xi stays in power, it will only make more people feel desperate. People are now talking about the issue of a successor, but the focus is not on a successor. They express their worry and despair about Xi’s rule, wondering when Xi will hand over power and resign. The rumor about a successor might give people a ray of hope. The so-called secret appointment of a successor may create a little fantasy and give a reason for people to keep waiting, with their fingers crossed, for a miracle to happen.
