Interpreting China’s Economic Statistics

An Interpretation of China’s Economic Statistics 2023.07.18 No.248

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China released the economic figures for the second quarter, which showed a growth of 6.3% compared to the same period last year, thus making the average growth for the first half of the year 5.5%. An increase of 6.3%, the highest in the past two years, far exceeds the 4.5% growth in the first quarter. This seems to be a good sign. However, even if this figure is true, it is because the situation in the second quarter of last year, as the basis for comparison, was extremely unfavorable. Compared with the first quarter of this year, the growth rate in the second quarter was only 0.8%. And the unemployment rate of young people aged between 16 and 24 exceeded 21%, a record high. Obviously, the situation is not optimistic. However, the spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics and the director of the Comprehensive Statistics Section said that, in general, in the first half of the year, China’s economy as a whole showed an upturn to a better trend. He even claimed that China’s economic growth rate is still the fastest among the world’s major economies. This is simply self-anesthesia and self-deception. In fact, the international community has been generally worried about China’s weak economic growth. The official interpretation and definition that China’s economy as a whole is showing an upward trend, so to speak, is purely propaganda for political purposes. It should be pointed out that the statistics released by the CPC authority are hardly comparable to those of foreign countries; those of foreign countries are science, while those of the CPC authority are propaganda and do not reflect the real situation at all. However, when compared with the past figures released by themselves, the statistics of China may have some reference value. Judging from the statistics released by the government over the past decade or so, the growth rate of China’s economy has been declining continuously, and it is obvious that this trend of declining economic growth has reached a point where it cannot be concealed. Being able to reflect this declining trend is undoubtedly the greatest significance of those statistics. Besides, even during the phase of China’s rapid economic growth, much of it was ineffective growth. Disguised by an increased speed was serious waste, which is also a major difference in China’s statistics and those of Western countries.

There exists a gap between the statistics released by the government and the real economic situation in recent years. A famous scholar, Xiang Song Zuo, once gave an illustration. At the beginning of 2019, the government announced that China’s GDP growth in 2018 was 6.6%. However, Xiang Song Zuo saw some internal reports, using two measurements. The two results showed respectively that the figure should be 1.67%, or even negative. Also, he used the relevant data released by the government to make an analysis. He found it simply impossible for the GDP to have a growth rate of 6.6%. In other words, it is possible that China’s GDP growth rate was already negative five years ago. And in the years since then, the situation of China’s economy has become even worse. Even if it was not negative, it would have been very low. It is almost impossible for the real statistics to reach a growth rate of more than 5%.

In fact, entering the second quarter of this year, real estate, exports and industrial production have declined on all fronts. Exports have witnessed a fall of 12.4% in June this year, compared to the same period last year, the biggest drop in years. As for real estate, which occupies a special position in the national economy, its decline is already well-known, no need to rely on figures. Under such circumstances, the overall economy still has a growth rate of 6.3%? This figure cannot be justified at all. Nowadays, the sluggishness of the entire economy can be felt at all times and everywhere, and the scene of depression can be seen at every turn. No matter how much the authority advocates and propagates, the public no longer believe it.

It is worth mentioning that a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics recently said that we should correctly understand the “temperature difference” between macro data and micro feelings. According to the spokesman, this “temperature difference” is caused by the comprehensiveness of the macro data and the limitations of the micro subjective feelings. One cannot help but be dumbfounded by such a statement. In order to deceive the people, they are constantly making up new wording and refreshing their record of shamelessness. Obviously, the authority knows very well that there is a huge gap between the feelings of the people and the statistics published by them, and they know that the people do not believe in the data provided by them. For an individual, there are indeed limitations, but if the vast majority of the public feel the same way, can they still reject it using such a term as limitation? Releasing false data, the authority actually feels very guilty. So, they ask the people to have a correct understanding of the data. They are forcing the people to accept their lies. Even Hu Xi Jin, former director of Global Times, said that once government agencies appear to be evasive and interpret everything favorably, the public will think that the government does not intend to solve the problem seriously, and people’s confidence will be further frustrated.

In fact, over the years, people have been extremely pessimistic about the future. As early as two thousand and nineteen, there was a saying that this year is the worst year in the past decade, yet it may be the best year in the next decade. The fact that this saying became widespread reflects a broad consensus in society. As a matter of fact, the continuous downward trend of the economy has been going on for many years, and the government has basically been helpless or even indifferent. Their usual methods of expanding infrastructure investment and relying on real estate to boost the economy in the past can hardly see any effect anymore. Now, both the international environment and the overall domestic situation are much more severe than before. In the past years, the government was unable to curb the stagnation and recession of the economy, and now, they are even less able.

As the economy has continued to go downhill over the years, many people have lost their jobs and incomes, and their lives have become extremely difficult. People who did not have confidence in the future have now become less confident and even desperate at the gloomy reality. People dare not consume, enterprises dare not invest, many international enterprises have withdrawn from China. Under such circumstances, even if the government introduces certain economic stimulus measures, they will not be effective. Not only will the economic situation in the second half of the year be worse, but for many years to come, China’s economy will not improve — unless major political changes take place. The biggest problem in China is that people have no confidence in politics. The root cause of deteriorating economy is the deterioration of political ecology; the deterioration of the economic situation is merely a response to the deterioration of the political ecology, which is the inevitable result of Xi Jinping’s dictatorial rule. Everyone actually knows this very well, and the ruling group knows this very well, too. What China needs most now is political stimulus, not economic stimulus. It may be difficult for major political changes to take place in China in the near future. The Xi Jinping administration seems to have given up hope for an economic boom, and they see the steady downward spiral of the economy as the new normal.

Economic stagnation and even recession do not seem to impose serious challenge to their rule. They are not panicking about their economic incompetence; on the contrary, they may be complacent about their rule with an iron fist. They are more cold-blooded and shameless than we can imagine. Xi Jinping’s judgment of the situation is definitely different from that of the general public. It has been proven over the past years that, on Xi Jinping’s scale, economy carries far less weight than politics. All Xi Jinping cares about is his regime, his power. As long as he can deter officials and suppress the people, he doesn’t care about anything else. So, never underestimate Xi Jinping’s “calmness”. In his mind, the ideal state of China may be North Korea, and his frame of reference may also be North Korea. After all, the size of China’s economy is already quite huge. Even if China’s economy becomes worse, it is still much better than that of North Korea. Even if the economy stops growing, this status quo can still be maintained for quite a long time.

As we know, the two magic weapons of the CPC are deception and suppression. With the overall situation deteriorating, the Xi Jinping authority is indeed tightening their control over public voice, intensifying their propaganda. Meanwhile, the Xi Jinping regime is trying their best to reinforce their suppression machine. The Xi Jinping administration is basically responding to all changes with no change, and suppression is their backing to solve all problems. They should know that it is getting more and more difficult to deceive the people. After all, many of the people are having a harder and harder time, and this feeling cannot be deceived. When deception fails, Xi Jinping will inevitably become more indulged in suppression, and this is exactly Xi Jinping’s “bottom-line thinking.”

In fact, in order to consolidate his rule, Xi Jinping’s attention is apparently concentrated on how to strengthen the CPC’s control over the state and society. Over these years, new CPC apparatuses have been set up to penetrate and control society more and more vigorously. This may be related to the deterioration of the overall economic situation, but the most important reason is that the CPC always guards against the Chinese people as its enemies. No matter how the economic situation changes, the fact that the CPC regards the people as enemies will not change. Moreover, as the discontent of the people intensifies, the authority will treat the people more and more harshly. As long as they can control the state and society, economic stagnation or even recession is of no concern to the Xi Jinping authority. It is conceivable that if Xi Jinping realizes his ideal of North Koreanization, the Chinese people will inevitably be as miserable as the North Korean people.

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